Next week, due to China's National Day holiday, the SHFE will suspend night session trading on September 30, close from October 1 to 8, and resume normal trading on October 9. On the macro front, key data releases include China's official manufacturing PMI for September, US ADP employment, US ISM manufacturing PMI, US unemployment rate, and US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for September. While domestic markets are closed, overseas markets will operate as usual, requiring continued attention to geopolitical developments and the US government shutdown warning.
LME lead, overseas geopolitical tensions remain prominent, and with tariff impacts persisting, lead consumption remains subdued, while demand for lead concentrates rises, driving TCs lower. For instance, TCs for imported concentrates in China continue to decline. Amid supply-demand stalemate, lead prices are consolidating at high levels. Additionally, the opening of China's lead import arbitrage window may shift some inventories to China, potentially supporting prices. Meanwhile, monitor overseas macro developments; during China's holiday, LME lead may hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,990-2,030/mt.
Domestically, SHFE lead will have only two trading days next week due to the National Day holiday. Downstream enterprises are about to enter holidays, and lead smelters are actively destocking pre-holiday inventories, which may slow down the destocking speed of lead ingots later. Furthermore, with the lead import window open, some downstream or smelting enterprises have pre-ordered imported lead ingots arriving in October, potentially pressuring lead prices lower in October. Before concentrated production resumptions at secondary lead plants and arrival of imported lead, prices are likely to consolidate, but weaken after supply increases materialize. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,900-17,200 yuan/mt next week and post-holiday.
Spot price forecast: 16,800-17,100 yuan/mt. Primary lead, smelters continue to resume after maintenance, but pre-holiday sellable inventories are limited, so spot prices are expected to refuse to budge. Secondary lead, smelters are gradually resuming, and with competition from imports, discounts in some regions may widen. However, before concentrated production resumptions in Anhui, discounts in major producing areas are unlikely to expand significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises' pre-holiday stockpiling is winding down, leaving only rigid demand; market activity is expected to decline. Post-holiday, focus will be on inventory transfers for delivery against the SHFE lead 2511 contract.
